谈积极开展人口教育的重要性

人口的增长加剧了贫困和资源退化,人口教育已经成为世界各国重视的问题,作为发展中的中国,更要重视和加强人口教育。     

基于MATLAB的煤与瓦斯突出BP网络预测方法

影响煤与瓦斯突出的各种要素与突出现象之间的关系复杂,且具有明显的非线性特点.BP人工神经网络模型可以很好地逼近这种非线性函数关系.基于煤与瓦斯突出特征指标的分析,建立了合理的单隐层结构的BP预测模型,并利用MATLAB神经网络工具箱实现了模型的训练与预测,应用结果表明,这种突出预测方法具有很高的计算效率和预测精度.     

Predicting the signs of forecast errors

The signs of forecast errors can be predicted using the difference between individuals' forecasts and the average of earlier forecasts of the same variable. It is possible to improve forecasts without worsening any. It is difficult to reconcile this result with the rational expectations hypothesis because the average of earlier forecasts is in the information set of the forecasters. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

KNN算法的数据优化策略

为了解决基于KNN（K-Nearest Neighbors）算法的非参数回归短时交通状态预测模型执行效率低的问题，提出了KNN算法的数据优化策略。通过对交通状态时空特性的研究，采用层次化对象构造交通状态向量，并根据交通状态的自重复性对历史样本数据库进行数据压缩。实验证明，优化策略提高了KNN算法的执行效率,经过压缩后的数据存取时间比压缩前缩短了8.66%。     

不同信息源条件下的目标初始位置分布预测

为使目标的初始位置分布假设更为合理，根据海上搜索编队所携带探测器材的特点，分析了搜索编队执行搜索任务时可能获得的多种信息源，并将之划分为精确信息源、模糊信息源和推测信息源3类，分别阐述了搜索编队在获得3种不同信息源情况下目标初始位置分布的预测方法．通过实例仿真，给出了海上搜索编队在获得不同信息源情况下的后续搜索行动建议，该方法可作为对海上搜索编队的搜索战法研究的参考．     

回归分析法在预测参会人数中的应用

利用回归分析的原理,建立了一个预测参加与会代表人数的数学模型,通过对以往多届会议代表回执和与会实际情况进行分析计算,较好地预测了本届与会代表人数.     

Testing homogeneity of Japanese CPI forecasters

This paper investigates whether some forecasters consistently outperform others using Japanese CPI forecast data of 42 forecasters over the past 18 quarters. It finds that the accuracy rankings of 0, 1, 2, and 5‐month forecasts are significantly different from those that might be expected when all forecasters had equal forecasting ability. Moreover, their rankings of the relative forecast levels are also significantly different from a random one. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Population structure and breeding biology of the hairy crab Pilumnus vespertilio (Fabricius, 1793) (Crustacea: Brachyura: Pilumnidae) in southern Mozambique

The population structure and reproduction of Pilumnus vespertilio were studied for the first time in Mozambique. Random samples of crabs were taken monthly from January to December 2002 from a pebble area of Inhaca Island, southern Mozambique. A clear sexual dimorphism was observed in the present population with males reaching greater sizes than females. Sex ratio was female‐biased, and the monthly size–frequency distributions were often bimodal. The annual reproductive cycle of Pilumnus vespertilio was continuous with peaks of breeding in summer. Results suggest that embryonic development may be synchronized within the population as a result of the very high reproductive activity observed in summer. Juveniles are recruited mostly in winter in the study area.     

Forecast Combination and Bayesian Model Averaging: A Prior Sensitivity Analysis

In this study we evaluate the forecast performance of model‐averaged forecasts based on the predictive likelihood carrying out a prior sensitivity analysis regarding Zellner's g prior. The main results are fourfold. First, the predictive likelihood does always better than the traditionally employed ‘marginal’ likelihood in settings where the true model is not part of the model space. Secondly, forecast accuracy as measured by the root mean square error (RMSE) is maximized for the median probability model. On the other hand, model averaging excels in predicting direction of changes. Lastly, g should be set according to Laud and Ibrahim (1995: Predictive model selection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society B 57 : 247–262) with a hold‐out sample size of 25% to minimize the RMSE (median model) and 75% to optimize direction of change forecasts (model averaging). We finally apply the aforementioned recommendations to forecast the monthly industrial production output of six countries, beating for almost all countries the AR(1) benchmark model. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2010年常德市成年人体育人口现状分析

对常德市6 286名成年人的问卷调查结果显示:2010年常德市成年人体育人口比例为9.9%,且男性高于女性,城镇高于乡村;静态活动、轻家务劳动和散步是成年人主要的闲暇活动.体育人口比例较2005年低,其原因与体育人口判断标准和2010年调查问卷设计欠科学有关.